Pleidlais Nesaf Brexit: Beth sydd wedi newid? Er gwaethaf wythnosau o drafod, does dim llawer wedi newid ar y cyfan.
Mae’r BBC yn adrodd bore ‘ma y bydd y trafodaethau trawsbleidiol yn dod i ben heb gyrraedd cytundeb. Golyga hyn y dylai pobl gadw llygad ar ddau ddatblygiad Brexit sydd y gorwel: - Pleidleisiau Dangosol 3.0? Y cynllun o’r cychwyn oedd y byddai Theresa May, pe bai’r trafodaethau yn methu, yn dychwelyd at bleidleisiau yn Nhŷ’r Cyffredin i geisio dod o hyd i gydsyniad.
- Bil y Cytundeb Ymadael: Datgelwyd y bydd y Bil yn cael Ail Ddarlleniad (dadl eang ar egwyddorion y bil) yn yr wythnos sy’n dechrau 3 Mehefin a’i gyflwyno ar gyfer y Darlleniad Cyntaf ‘cyn gynted â phosib’.
Nid y ‘Bleidlais Ystyrlon’ nesaf mo hyn serch hynny – y tro hwn bydd ASau yn dadlau’r ddeddfwriaeth a fyddai’n rhoi’r Cytundeb Ymadael ar waith mewn cyfraith ddomestig. Mae’n ddeddfwriaeth arwyddocaol iawn – a bydd ar bobl eisiau paratoi at graffu arno heb, o bosib, lawer o amser i wneud hynny. Yn dechnegol, mae dal angen cymeradwyaeth drwy’r bleidlais ystyrlon er mwyn dilysu’r cytundeb – ond nid yw’n amhosib y bydd Llywodraeth y Deyrnas Unedig yn ceisio cael gwared â’r gofyniad hwn drwy Fil y Cytundeb Ymadael. A oes gan y Bil siawns o basio? Ar hyn o bryd, ymddengys fod y siawns yn isel o ystyried nad oes dim byd sylweddol wedi newid. Serch hynny, mae Theresa May wedi cytuno i osod amserlen ar gyfer ei hymadawiad – a gallai hyn newid pethau drwy orfodi dewis rhwng Brexit heb gytundeb a dirymu erthygl 50 (canslo Brexit yn gyfan gwbl). Gweler yr erthygl hon gan Institute for Government ar 16 Mai i gael dadansoddiad manylach. Next Brexit Vote: What has changed? Despite weeks of talks, in a nutshell, not all that much.
The BBC are reporting this morning that the cross-party talks are set to cease without reaching an agreement. This means people will want to keep an eye on two upcoming Brexit developments: - Indicative Votes 3.0? The plan all along was that if the talks broke down – Theresa May would go back to votes in the Commons to try and find a consensus.
- The Withdrawal Agreement Bill (WAB): It has been revealed that the WAB will undergo Second Reading (broad debate principles of the bill) in the week of June 3 and will be introduced for First Reading ‘asap’.
This isn’t the next ‘Meaningful Vote’ however – this time MP’s will debate the legislation that would give effect to the Withdrawal Agreement in domestic law. This is a very significant piece of legislation – and people will want to be prepared to scrutinise it with potentially, little time to do so. Technically, approval through the meaningful vote is still necessary for the agreement to be ratified – however it is not impossible that the UK Government will try to edit out this requirement through the WAB. Does the WAB have a chance of passing? Current indications suggest the chances are low given that nothing substantive has changed. However, Theresa May has agreed to set a timetable for her departure – and this may change the dynamic by forcing a choice between a no-deal Brexit and revoking article 50 (cancelling Brexit altogether). See this Institute for Government post from 16 May for a more detailed analysis. |