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Wales Civil Society Forum on Brexit Newsletter 31th May 2019

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Cylchlythyr / Newsletter
Annwyl Gyfaill / Dear Friend,
 
Dyma eich diweddariad wythnosol ar Brexit gan y Fforwm. 

Fel rhywun sydd wedi cefnogi neu mynychu’r Fforwm, dyma gylchlythyr wythnosol sydd yn tynnu sylw at yr hyn sydd angen i chi wybod am Brexit. 

____

Here is your weekly update on Brexit from the Forum. 

As someone who has supported or attended our Forum, this is our weekly newsletter that highlights what you need to know about Brexit. 

Diolch / Thank you, 
Charles 

Charles Whitmore
Cydlynydd Fforwm
Forum Coordinator

 

Beth i’w ddisgwyl nesaf ym myd Brexit? Mewn gair…yr annisgwyl.

Mae canlyniadau’r etholiadau Ewropeaidd wedi dangos pa mor rhanedig y mae’r Deyrnas Unedig yn dal i fod. Mae’r Athro Menon yn dadlau na chafodd y naill begwn na’r llall fwyafrif awdurdodol ac nad yw’r etholiadau, yn y pen draw, yn newid llawer.

Felly ble rydym arni nawr?

  • Y ddau begwn: os unrhyw beth, mae’r etholiadau wedi hollti’r ddadl ymhellach drwy ysgogi galwadau dros Brexit heb gytundeb yn ogystal ag 2il Refferendwm. Yn rhesymegol (ond ers pryd mae Brexit wedi ymwneud â rhesymeg!), mae’r ddau’n ymddangos yn annhebygol. Mae’n anodd dychmygu mwyafrif yn Senedd San Steffan o blaid refferendwm, ac mae synnwyr cyffredin yn awgrymu y byddai ffordd o atal ymadawiad heb gytundeb yn cael ei chanfod (ond mae hynny’n ansicr hefyd).
  • Y Cytundeb ymadael: gallai Prif Weinidog newydd lwyddo i ennyn cefnogaeth dros y Cytundeb presennol drwy sicrhau newidiadau yn y datganiad gwleidyddol (y rhan o’r cytundeb nad yw’n rhwymol ynglŷn â’r berthynas yn y dyfodol). Mae’r amserlen i wneud hyn yn debygol o fod yn dynn iawn ac angen estyniad pellach.
  • Estyniad arall: i osgoi Brexit heb gytundeb – mae’n ymddangos y bydd angen estyniad y tu hwnt i 31 Hydref. Serch hynny, nid oes raid i’r UE gynnig un ac fe ddatgelodd yr 2il estyniad densiwn ymysg Aelod-wladwriaethau’r UE ynglŷn â hyn. Mae pob estyniad yn cynyddu’r teimlad y byddai angen i’r DU newid ei ffordd o weithredu’n sylweddol er mwyn i amser ychwanegol gael ei ystyried (refferendwm, etholiad cyffredinol…)
  • Brexit heb gytundeb ond dan reolaeth: mae rhai sylwebyddion wedi awgrymu y gallai’r DU adael heb y cytundeb ond negodi cyfres o gytundebau lliniarol llai. Serch hynny, mae’r UE wedi’i gwneud yn glir na fydd yn negodi hyd nes y mae’r pynciau yn y cytundeb presennol (hawliau dinasyddion, setliad ariannol ayyb…) wedi’u setlo.

What to expect next on the Brexit front? In short…the unexpected.

The results of the MEP elections have shown just how divided and polarised the country still is. Professor Menon argues that neither of the extremes secured a commanding majority and that ultimately, this changes little.

So where are we now then?

  • The two extremes: If anything, this election has further polarised the debate by fuelling calls for both a ‘no-deal’ Brexit and a 2nd Referendum. In a logical sense (though when has Brexit ever been about logic!), both seem unlikely. It’s hard to imagine the UK Parliament finding a majority for a referendum, and common sense suggests a way to block leaving without an agreement would/should/could be found (emphasis on the doubt).
  • The Withdrawal Agreement: a new Prime Minister could succeed in getting support for the Agreement that is on the table by securing changes to the political declaration (the non-binding part of the agreement about the future relationship). The timeline for this is likely to be tight and require a further extension.
  • Another extension: If a no-deal Brexit is to be avoided – an extension beyond October 31 is looking necessary. However, the EU is not compelled to grant one and the 2nd extension already revealed some tension amongst EU Member States on this. Each extension brings with it an increasing sense that the UK’s approach would need to shift radically for further time to be considered (a referendum, general election…)
  • A managed ‘no-deal: Some commentators have suggested the UK could leave without the agreement but negotiate a series of smaller mitigating agreements. However, the EU has been clear that it will not negotiate until the topics covered in the current agreement (citizens’ rights, financial settlement etc…) have been settled.
 

Beth mae’r ras am Arweinyddiaeth y Ceidwadwyr yn ei olygu i Brexit?

Gallai olygu llawer iawn gan fod sawl un o’r ymgeiswyr wedi dweud yn blaen y byddai’n well ganddynt Brexit heb gytundeb nag estyniad pellach (Boris Johnson, Dominic Raab, Andrea Leadsom, Esther McVey…)

Bydd hefyd yn golygu bod amser yn brinnach fyth cyn 31 Hydref… Nid yw’n syndod bod Theresa May wedi dweud na fydd hi’n cyflwyno’r Bil Cytundeb Ymadael ddechrau Mehefin fel y cyhoeddwyd yn flaenorol, ac nid ydym nawr yn disgwyl yn ei weld yn fuan iawn.

Mae sylwebyddion wedi ysgrifennu nad oes yna ffordd bendant i ASau atal prif weinidog a fyddai â’i fryd ar Brexit heb gytundeb, ac mai’r prif reswm pam yr oedd modd iddynt wneud hynny o’r blaen oedd nad oedd Theresa May ei hun eisiau’r canlyniad hwnnw. Mae ymatebion pellach wedi pwysleisio bod gan ASau rai opsiynau ar gael iddynt. Mewn gwirionedd, mae’n deg tybio y byddai gwneud hynny yn fwy heriol a radical na’r tro diwethaf, felly gallem ddisgwyl gweld annhrefn tebyg fis Hydref eleni i’r hyn a gafwyd fis Mawrth diwethaf.
 

What does the Conservative Leadership contest mean for Brexit?

It could mean a great deal as several of the candidates have openly said they would prefer a ‘no-deal’ Brexit over a further extension (Boris Johnson, Dominic Raab, Andrea Leadsom, Esther McVey…)

It will also run down the clock to 31 October further… Unsurprisingly Theresa May has clarified that she will not be introducing the Withdrawal Agreement Bill in early June as previously announced, and there is now no expectation that we will see it anytime soon.

Commentators have written that there is no decisive way for MP’s to stop a prime minister intent on a no-deal Brexit, and that they were previously able to do so mainly because Theresa May herself did not want this outcome. Further responses have emphasised that MP’s do have some options available. Ultimately it seems safe to conclude that doing so will be more challenging and radical than last time, so we might expect to see similar chaos this coming October, to that of last March.

 

Paratoi at Brexit heb gytundeb yng Nghymru

Wrth i’r tebygolrwydd o Brexit heb gytundeb gynyddu, cyhoeddodd CBI rybuddion bore ‘ma am effaith hynny ar fusnesau, yn enwedig busnesau bach.

Yng Nghymru, mae Pwyllgor Materion Allanol a Deddfwriaeth Ychwanegol y Cynulliad yn cynnal sesiynau tystiolaeth i ystyried paratoadau at Brexit. Cynhaliwyd y sesiwn ddiwethaf ar 20 Mai gyda Chymdeithas Llywodraeth Leol Cymru, Prifysgolion Cymru a Chydffederasiwn GIG Cymru. Er bod y paratoadau yn mynd rhagddynt yn y sectorau hyn, ceir pryderon o hyd mewn meysydd sydd y tu hwnt i reolaeth mudiadau, ac amlygwyd dyfodol hirdymor cronfeydd strwythurol a’r bil mewnfudo fel enghreifftiau arbennig o gryf. Cynhelir y sesiwn nesaf ar 3 Mehefin.

Mae’r Pwyllgor Materion Allanol a Deddfwriaeth Ychwanegol hefyd wedi cyhoeddi adroddiad ar un o’r cytundebau parhad masnach y mae Llywodraeth y DU wedi’u sicrhau. Mae’r adroddiad yn amlygu nad mater syml o drosglwyddo mo’r cytundeb hwn fel sydd wedi’i honni ac y byddai’n creu bylchau sylweddol i Gymru pe bai’n dod i rym (er enghraifft, pe ceid Brexit heb gytundeb). Mae’n argymell bod Llywodraeth Cymru yn cynnal dadansoddiad pellach ac yn codi’r pryderon gyda Llywodraeth y DU.

O ran paratoadau’r trydydd sector, mae’r erthygl hon gan Charity Finance Group a gyhoeddwyd yn gynharach eleni yn ddefnyddiol, gan amlinellu rhai o ganlyniadau posib Brexit heb gytundeb a phwysleisio rôl y sector yn lliniaru cost ddynol ac economaidd y newid hwn. Yn ogystal, amlygodd y grŵp yn ôl ym mis Ionawr nad oedd dros draean o fudiadau wedi paratoi o gwbl at Brexit heb gytundeb. Bydd mudiadau eisiau meddwl am negeseuon posib ynglŷn â goblygiadau Brexit heb gytundeb iddyn nhw a pharhau i gynnal eu hasesiadau risg mewnol eu hunain.

Mae’r erthygl hon gan Third Sector o gymorth hefyd i ystyried goblygiadau Brexit. Mae’n ymdrin â phryderon a chyfleoedd ac yn nodi bod yna lawer o bryderon a’i bod yn anodd gweld cyfleoedd, ond bod angen i’r sector fynd i chwilio amdanynt.

Preparations for a ‘no-deal’ Brexit in Wales

In the face of an increased likelihood of a ‘no-deal’ Brexit, this morning the CBI have issued warnings on the impact of a no-deal Brexit on businesses, particularly small ones.

In Wales, the EAAL Committee of the National Assembly, is conducting evidence sessions to follow-up on Brexit preparedness work. The last session took place on 20 May with WLGA, Universities Wales and the Welsh NHS Confederation. While preparations are ongoing in these sectors, there are prevailing concerns in areas outside of organisations’ control, with the long-term future of structural funds and the immigration bill being highlighted as particularly strong examples. The next session will take place on 3 June.

The EAAL Committee has also published a report on one of the continuity trade agreements that UK Government has secured. The report highlights that it is not a simple rollover as claimed and would create significant gaps for Wales if it were triggered (for example in a no-deal scenario). It recommends that the Welsh Government conduct further analysis and address concerns with the UK Government.

In terms of third sector preparedness, this piece from the Charity Finance Group from earlier this year is a useful read, which outlines some of the potential consequences of a no-deal Brexit and emphasises the role of the sector in mitigating the human and economic cost of this shift. Meanwhile the group also highlighted back in January that over a third of organisations had made no preparations for a no-deal Brexit. Organisations will want to think about potential messaging around the implications of a no-deal Brexit for them and continuing with their own internal risk assessments.

This Third Sector article is also useful to help think through the implications of Brexit. It tackles both concerns and opportunities but overall notes that while the former are many and the latter difficult to see, the sector will need to seek these out

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CAV Substance Misuse Market Position Statement (April 2019) (1)
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Letter from the First Minister Of Wales (English)

Please note that C3SC cannot take responsibility for the information other organisations produce, for example, in their resources, and on their websites. The views of other organisations are not necessarily the views of C3SC.

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