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Wales Civil Society Forum on Brexit Newsletter 15th March 2019

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Cylchlythyr / Newsletter

Annwyl Gyfaill / Dear Friend,
 
Dyma eich diweddariad wythnosol ar Brexit gan y Fforwm. 

Fel rhywun sydd wedi cefnogi neu mynychu’r Fforwm, dyma gylchlythyr wythnosol sydd yn tynnu sylw at yr hyn sydd angen i chi wybod am Brexit. 

____

Here is your weekly update on Brexit from the Forum. 

As someone who has supported or attended our Forum, this is our weekly newsletter that highlights what you need to know about Brexit. 

Diolch / Thank you, 
Charles 

Charles Whitmore
Cydlynydd Fforwm
Forum Coordinator


Diweddariad Brexit


Am wythnos i’w grynhoi ynglŷn â Brexit …

Cafwyd tair pleidlais fawr a roddodd nifer o droeon trwstan, ymddiswyddiadau, colledion i’r Llywodraeth ar y Bil Masnach, datganiad y gwanwyn ac i goroni’r cyfan, cynlluniau dim-cytundeb Brexit llywodraeth y DG.

Mewn nifer o ffyrdd, fe wireddwyd ein disgwyliadau o ddechrau ‘r wythnos. Ond roedd cyrraedd yno’n broses dramatig…

  • Yn ôl y disgwyl cafodd y cytundeb gadael ei wrthod.
  • Yn wir, gwrthodwyd Brexit ‘heb-gytundeb’ hefyd, er mewn modd cryfach nac a fwriadwyd gan y llywodraeth.
  • Yn olaf, yn ôl y disgwyl, pleidleisiodd y Senedd i ofyn am estyniad ‘technegol’ tan Fehefin 30, 2019.


Beth mae hyn yn ei olygu ar gyfer Brexit heb gytundeb?

Er gwaetha’r bleidlais, gadael heb gytundeb yw’r deilliant diofyn o hyd, hyd yn oed os nad yw hyn yn digwydd ar Fawrth 29 o ganlyniad i estyniad. Yn wir, yn dilyn yr ail bleidlais ystyrlon, dywedodd Donald Tusk fod y canlyniad yma’n’cynyddu’r tebygrwydd o adael ‘heb-gytundeb’.

Rydym newydd ryddhau canllaw i helpu sefydliadau baratoi ac mae’r OCS newydd ryddhau’r rhestr wirio yma. Gweler hefyd y llythyr hwn o Lywodraeth y DG ar gyfarwyddyd ar gyfer darparwyr gofal cymdeithasol os yw’n berthnasol.
Mae rhai wedi awgrymu y gellid ‘gadael mewn modd trefnus ond heb-gytundeb’.

Fodd bynnag, gweler ddiagram y Sefydliad dros Lywodraeth am fwy o wybodaeth ar y cysur cyfyng a geir gan hynny, yn ogystal â’r eglurhad manwl ynglŷn â chyflwr y paratoadau i adael heb gytundeb.
 

Beth mae hyn yn ei olygu ar gyfer estyniad?

Penderfynodd y trydydd allan o dair pleidlais yr wythnos hon y dylai Llywodraeth y DG geisio cael estyniad ‘technegol’ hyd at Fehefin 30, 2019. Caiff y cais hwn ei wneud i’r UE waeth bynnag beth ddigwyddiff nesaf. Byddai’n fyr a’i fwriad yw rhoi amser i weithredu’r prosesau deddfwriaethol sydd eu hangen.

Golyga hyn hefyd bydd Theresa May yn dod â’r Cytundeb Gadael yn ôl am drydedd bleidlais ystyrlon erbyn Mawrth 20. Mae’r amseru’n berthnasol, oherwydd bod Cyngor yr UE yn cwrdd ar Fawrth 21 ac mae’n debygol taw bryd hynny y byddan nhw wedyn yn penderfynu ar b’un y dylid caniatáu estyniad neu beidio.

Ymddengys yn annhebygol y byddai’r cytundeb yn pasio ar ôl cyn lleied o amser, od ni ellir ei ddiystyru. Mae hi wedi datgan pe bai’r cytundeb yn cael ei wrthod am y trydydd tro, gallwn fod yn edrych ar estyniad maith o flwyddyn neu fwy, sef rhywbeth fyddai’n brawychu nifer o aelodau seneddol, ond sydd yn opsiwn mae’r UE yn ystyried ei ganiatáu.

Bydd gofyn i unrhyw estyniad dderbyn cydsyniad unfrydol Cyngor yr UE ac mae’r UE wedi dweud “bydd yr UE27 yn disgwyl cyfiawnhad credadwy am estyniad posib a’i hyd”. Dos dim disgwyl i’r UE wrthod cais am estyniad, ond ni ddylid diystyru hyn chwaith. Mae yna ddisgwyl am ddatblygiad sylweddol, os am gyfiawnhau estyniad hir; datblygiad sylweddol, fel Ail Refferendwm neu gynnal etholiadau cyffredinol.

Am fwy o wybodaeth, mae Llywodraeth y DG wedi rhyddhau y nodyn technegol hwn sydd yn egluro’r broses estyniad, ac mae’r Athro Barnard a’r Athro Weatherill wedi cyhoeddi’r blog yma sydd yn egluro’r senarios amrywiol posib.
 

Beth yw’r camau nesaf?

Mae’n debyg mai’r cam nesaf fydd cynnal Pleidlais Ystyrlon 3.0 erbyn Mawrth 20 a Chyngor yr UE ar Fawrth 21 lle caiff unrhyw estyniad ai gymeradwyo neu ei wrthod a gellid fod ag amodau arni.

  • Os yw’r cytundeb yn cael ei gymeradwyo, yna bydd Llywodraeth y DG yn cynnig Bil y Cytundeb Gadael.
  • Os yw’r cytundeb yn methu eto, gallwn fod yn edrych ar gyfnod estyniad hirach a’r DG yn cymryd rhan yn etholiadau i Senedd Ewrop.

Mae’r diagram yma’n mapio’r camau posib ymlaen. Am fwy o fanylder ynglŷn â’r pleidleisiau fu’n digwydd, gweler hyn yn ‘Adroddiad Y DG mewn UE sy’n Newid’

 

Brexit Update


What a week to summarise on the Brexit front…

Three major Brexit votes which provided various twists and turns, resignations, government defeats on the Trade Bill, the spring statement and to top it off, the UK Government’s no-deal Brexit plans.

In a few ways, the expectations from the start of the week were met. But getting there was a dramatic process…

  • As expected the withdrawal agreement was rejected.
  • And indeed a ‘no-deal’ Brexit was also rejected, albeit in a stronger manner than the UK Government intended.
  • Finally, again as expected, the UK Parliament voted to request a ‘technical’ extension until 30 June 2019.

What does this mean for a no-deal Brexit?

Despite the vote, leaving without an agreement remains the default outcome, even if this does not occur on the 29 March due to an extension. In fact following the 2nd Meaningful Vote, Donald Tusk stated that this result increased the likelihood of ‘no-deal’.

We have released a guide to help organisations prepare and the OCS has also just released this checklist. See also this letter from the UK Government on guidance for social care providers if relevant.

Some have suggested that we could have ‘managed no-deal’. However see this Institute for Government diagram for more information on the limited comfort this provides, as well as this detailed explainer on the state of no-deal preparations.

What does this mean for an extension?

The third of the three votes this week decided that the UK Government should seek a ‘technical’ extension to the 30 June 2019. This request will be made to the EU regardless of what happens next at this point. It would be short and is intended to provide time for the necessary legislative processes.

This also means that Theresa May is going to bring the Withdrawal Agreement back for a third meaningful vote by the 20th March. The timing is relevant, because the EU Council are meeting on 21 March and will likely then, decide on whether to grant an extension.

It seems unlikely that the deal will pass after such a short time, but it cannot be discounted. She has stated that if the agreement is rejected a 3rd time, we could be looking at a long extension of potentially at least a year, something which may scare many MPs, but is an option the EU is considering allowing.

Any extension will require the unanimous approval of the EU Council and the EU has said that “the EU27 will expect a credible justification for a possible extension and its duration”. It is not expected that the EU will refuse an extension request, but this should not be discounted either. There is an expectation that, particularly for a long extension, a substantial development, like a 2nd Referendum or general elections would take place.

For more information the UK Government has released this technical note explaining the extension process, and Professors Barnard and Weatherill have published this blog explaining the various possible extension scenarios.

What are the next steps?

Its potentially full steam ahead for Meaningful vote 3.0 by 20 March and the EU Council on 21 March where any extension will be either approved, rejected and may have conditions placed on it.

  • If the agreement passes, the UK Government will table the Withdrawal Agreement Bill.
  • If the agreement fails to pass again, we could be looking at a longer extension and the UK taking part in the MEP elections.

This diagram maps out possible ways forward. For a more detailed read of the votes that have been happening, see this UK in a Changing EU report.


Datganiad y Gwanwyn – dim arwydd o’r Gronfa Ffyniant Gyffredin


Unwaith eto, chafwyd dim sôn am y Gronfa Ffyniant Gyffredin. Yr amheuaeth yw na fydd Llywodraeth y DG yn ymgynghori ynglŷn â hyn hyd nes bod yna rywfaint o sicrwydd ynglŷn â’r Cytundeb Gadael. Ceir nifer o gwestiynau ynglŷn â’r Gronfa o safbwynt datganoledig. Mae’r post hwn a ysgrifennwyd gan Y Sefydliad Dros Faterion Cymreig yn chwilota i nifer o’r rhain, gan gynnwys cwestiynau pwysig fel: sut gall newidiadau yn y dyfodol i’r Gronfa gael eu penderfynu? Ble fydd pwerau’r Gronfa yn cael eu cadw? Unwaith y caiff ei sefydlu, am faint fydd y gronfa yn parhau?

Enghraifft arall o ddarllen hanfodol yw adroddiad diweddar yr IPPR: Ariannu Rhanbarthol ar ôl Brexit: Cyfleoedd ar gyfer y Gronfa Ffyniant Gyffredin. Mae DWF hefyd wedi cynhyrchu’r Cwestiyn Ofynir yn Aml defnyddiol hwn.

Yn ei araith ynglŷn â Datganiad y Gwanwyn, cafwyd rhybudd gan Philip Hammond ynglŷn ag effaith negyddol Brexit heb gytundeb ac fe ryddhaodd Llywodraeth y DG ei chynlluniau i osgoi ffin galed rhwng Gogledd Iwerddon ac Iwerddon a thollau masnach pe bawn yn gadael heb gytundeb Brexit. Mewn ymgais i atal cynnydd mawr mewn prisoedd, bydd y cynlluniau yn cael gwared â thollau ar nifer o nwyddau, er nad hwn fydd yr achos ar gyfer rhai sectorau fel amaeth, oherwydd yr angen i warchod cynhyrchwyr yn y DG rhag cystadleuaeth annheg. Cafwyd derbyniad cymysg i’r cynlluniau hyn ac mae’r UE yn craffu eu cyfreithlondeb o dan gyfraith Sefydliad Masnach y Byd. Gweler y blog hwn am asesiad mwy manwl.

 

Spring Statement – no sign of the Shared Prosperity Fund (SPF)


Once again there was no mention of the SPF. It is now suspected that the UK Government will hold off the on consulting until there is some certainty around the Withdrawal Agreement. There are many questions remaining about the SPF from a devolved perspective. This post written by the Institute of Welsh Affairs explores several of these including important questions like: how future changes to the SPF will be determined? Where will the powers of the SPF be held? Once established how long will the SPF continue?

Another essential read is the recent IPPR report: Regional funding after Brexit: Opportunities for the UK’s Shared Prosperity Fund. DWF have also produced this useful FAQ.

In his speech on the Spring Statement, Philip Hammond warned about the negative impact of a ‘no-deal’ Brexit and the UK Government released its no-deal Brexit plans both for avoiding a hard border on Ireland and for trade tariffs. In a bid to prevent spikes in prices, the plans will cut tariffs on many goods, though this will not be the case for some sectors such as agriculture, owing to the need to protect UK based producers from unfair competition. These plans have received a mixed response, and the EU is questioning their legality under WTO law. See this blog for a more detailed assessment.


Deddfwriaeth Brexit a Hawliau Dynol


Lansiwyd ymchwiliad newydd gan Is-bwyllgor Tŷ’r Arglwyddi ar Gyfiawnder yr UE yn ymchwilio i fframwaith y dyfodol ar gyfer peryglon posib i hawliau yn dilyn Brexit. Maen nhw ar hyn o bryd yn derbyn tystiolaeth gyda llinell derfyn o Ebrill 12, 2019. Gellir anfon rhain at [email protected]  a [email protected]  ac ni ddylent fod yn fwy na 1500 o eiriau.

Er na chafwyd sylw i’r rhain, fe drechwyd y Llywodraeth sawl gwaith yn Nhŷ’r Arglwyddi ar y Bil Masnach. Un o’i amcanion yw atal y Bil Masnach rhag dod i rym pe bae Brexit Heb Gytundeb. Bydd yn mynd am ei drydydd darlleniad ar Fawrth 20.

Bydd y Mesur Gadael yr Undeb Ewropeaidd (Gwerthuso Effeithiau ar y Sectorau Iechyd a Gofal Cymdeithasol) sydd yn gwneud darpariaeth ar gyfer gwerthusiad annibynnol o effaith Brexit ar y sectorau iechyd a gofal cymdeithasol ar draws y DG yn mynd am ei ail ddarlleniad yn Nhŷ’r Cyffredin ar Fawrth 22. Am fwy o wybodaeth ar weithgarwch cymdeithas sifil ar draws y DG ynglŷn â’r Bil hwn, byddwch cystal ag ymweld â’r dudalen hon gan Camphill Scotland

 

Brexit Legislation and Human Rights


The House of Lords EU Justice Sub-Committee has launched a new inquiry “examining the future framework for and potential risks to rights after Brexit”. They are currently accepting evidence with a deadline of 12 April 2019. These can be sent to [email protected] and [email protected]and should be no more than 1500 words.

Passing somewhat under the radar, the UK Government suffered several defeats in the House of Lords on the Trade Bill, one of which aims to prevent the Trade Bill from entering into force in the event of a no-deal Brexit. It will go for third reading on 20 March.

The European Union Withdrawal (Evaluation of Effects on Health and Social Care Sectors) Bill which makes provision for an independent evaluation of the impact of Brexit on health and social care across the UK will go for second reading in the Commons on 22 March. For more information on UK-wide civil society activity around this bill, please see this page by Camphill Scotland.


Prosiect ar y cyd yw Fforwm Cymdeithas Sifil Cymru ar Brexit rhwng Canolfan Llywodraethiant Cymru ym Mhrifysgol CaerdyddChyngor Gweithredu Gwirfoddol Cymru (WCVA) ac fe’i hariennir gan y Legal Education Foundation. Ei nod yw rhoi’r grym a’r gallu i’r trydydd sector ddeall proses Brexit, a chyfrannu ati, drwy ddarparu gwybodaeth hygyrch a chymorth cydlynydd.

The Wales Civil  Society Forum on Brexit is a joint project between Cardiff University’s Wales Governance Centreand Wales Council for Voluntary Action (WCVA) and is funded by the Legal Education Foundation. It aims to empower and enable the third sector to understand and engage with the Brexit process through providing accessible information and a coordinating role.

Copyright © 2019 Wales Civil Society Forum on Brexit All rights reserved.

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